Investment bank GP Bullhound’s latest report suggests that Spotify will be valued at US$20 billion when it finally goes public, and that its user base is set to climb to heady heights.
GP Bullhound are predicting the service’s current 60 million-strong paying user base will swell to 100 million by mid-next year, reaching half a billion by 2020.
“Spotify have introduced family plans and student discounts and if we factor in that emerging markets have a much lower average revenue per premium subscriber we believe that Spotify will see a steady decline in revenue per premium subscriber moving towards 2020 compared to today’s value,” GP Bullhound explains in the report.
“This is the reason why we have decreased our estimated average revenue per premium subscriber to $80 — compared to $88 in 2015 and $89 in 2016.”
Rapid growth will see Spotify’s valuation hit $55 billion by 2020, which is far from its threshold. “Given that Spotify’s growth continues and that emerging market growth keeps average revenue per premium subscriber relatively in shape,” the report says, “we envision that Spotify has a long term potential of being valued at $100 billion.”
Now, it needs to be stated that GP Bullhound is an investor in Spotify, so they have a vested interest in this hypothesis becoming a self-fulfilling one.
Still, they urge investors to jump up, warning that Spotify’s operating losses may “distract investors from the true value that is being created.”